10 RISKS TO NAVIGATE

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Cybersecurity threats

Banks face an increasing risk of cyberattacks, including data breaches, hacking, and ransomware attacks, requiring robust regulatory compliance measures to ensure the trust and security of customer information.

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Cybersecurity threats Facts!

1. Global data breaches: According to IBM's 2023 report, the average cost of a data breach reached USD 4.45 million, signifying a 15% increase over three years. In India, the cost hit an all-time high of INR 179 million, up by nearly 28% since 2020.

2. Ransomware surge in financial institutions: Sophos' study shows ransomware attacks in financial services rose from 55% in 2022 to 64% in 2023, nearly doubling the rate in 2021. This stresses the need for improved cybersecurity measures.

3. Higher costs for financial services: Accenture's report reveals the financial sector faces an average breach cost of $5.85 million in 2020, significantly exceeding the industry average of $3.86 million. Sensitive data and regulatory scrutiny contribute to this disparity.

4. Malicious insider risks: Accenture highlights that malicious insider attacks cost financial services firms an average of $243,000 per attack, underlining the importance of strong internal security measures.

5. Ransomware impact on financial institutions: Check Point Research reports a 150% rise in ransomware attacks on financial institutions in the first half of 2021 compared to the previous year. This necessitates investing in advanced cybersecurity solutions and proactive measures.

Insights:
  • Data breaches are a significant concern for necessitating increased investment in data security and breach response capabilities.
  • The financial services industry is facing a more challenging cyber threat landscape compared to other industries, with higher data breach costs and a surge in ransomware attacks.
  • The rise in ransomware attacks on financial institutions indicates that attackers see the financial sector as a lucrative target due to its sensitive data and potential for higher ransom payments.
  • Malicious insider attacks represent a specific threat to financial organizations, requiring comprehensive security measures to prevent and detect insider threats.
  • The significant increase in ransomware attacks on financial institutions demands urgent action from the industry to bolster cybersecurity defences and adopt proactive security practices.
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Regulatory compliance

Banks operate within a complex regulatory environment, necessitating adherence to numerous laws and regulations to maintain trust and transparency in financial transactions.

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Regulatory compliance

According to the 13th annual survey on the cost of compliance by Thomson Reuters

    1. Regulatory Complexity and Volume: In 2021, there were 64,152 annual regulatory alerts, the second-highest since 2008, indicating increased complexity and volume of compliance requirements worldwide.

    2. Cyber Resilience and Data Analytics: Compliance involvement in assessing cyber resilience and data analytics is growing in 2022, reflecting a focus on data-driven compliance practices.

    3. Resource Allocation and Conduct Risk: 62% expect increased resources for conduct risk issues; G-SIBs and regions show variations in resource expectations.

    4. Outsourcing and Budget Growth: Around 30% outsourced compliance functions; 62% expect increased compliance budgets in 2022.

    5. Demand for Skilled Staff and Team Growth: 66% anticipate higher costs for skilled senior compliance staff; 35% expect growth in compliance teams in the next 12 months.

    6. Regional Variations: Regional differences exist in turnover and budget growth expectations, with the Middle East and Australasia showing unique trends.

Insights:
  • Post-pandemic, financial institutions faced increased regulatory complexity and volume, driven by economic changes, digitalization, and shifting consumer behavior.
  • Cyber resilience remained a priority for compliance professionals, with heightened concerns about data security due to increased technology adoption and remote work.
  • Demand surged for skilled compliance staff, highlighting the need for specialized expertise in navigating evolving regulatory landscapes.
  • Financial institutions recognized the importance of expanding compliance teams to meet growing regulatory requirements during and after the pandemic.
  • Compliance functions received increased budgetary attention, reflecting its strategic significance for stability and reputation.
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Technological and Digital Disruption

The rapid advancements in technology, including digital innovations and the rise of fintech companies, pose significant challenges for banks. Technological and digital disruption reshapes traditional banking practices, necessitating adaptation to new business models, customer expectations, and emerging technologies.

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Technological and Digital Disruption

1. Fintech Investment: In 2020, global fintech investment reached a record high of $105 billion. This indicates strong interest and support for fintech innovation and disruption in the financial sector.

2. Digital-Only Banks:As of 2021, there were over 300 digital-only banks worldwide. The customer base of digital-only banks is growing rapidly, indicating a shift towards online and user-friendly banking experiences.

3. Mobile Payment Adoption: Mobile payment solutions, such as Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Samsung Pay, have witnessed increasing popularity. By 2025, the global mobile payment transaction value is estimated to exceed $14 trillion. This signals a significant shift towards cashless transactions as consumers increasingly embrace mobile payment methods

Insights:
  • Fintech investment reached a record high in 2020, indicating strong interest in fintech innovation and disruption in the financial sector.
  • The presence of numerous digital-only banks and their rapidly growing customer base signifies a shift towards online and user-friendly banking experiences.
  • The increasing popularity of mobile payment solutions reflects a significant global shift towards cashless transactions as consumers embrace mobile-based payments.
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Changing customer expectations

Customers increasingly expect personalized, seamless, and convenient banking experiences, which banks must deliver while complying with regulatory requirements to build and maintain trust in their offerings.

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Changing customer expectations

1. Personalization: According to a PwC Survey, 81% of banking customers expect personalized recommendations from their financial institution. According to a Salesforce Study, 62% of US consumers are open to AI assisting them with banking needs, and 78% believe AI can save them time.

2. Digital Banking Growth: According to an Accenture Survey, 72% of North American banking customers increased their use of digital banking during the pandemic¹⁶. According to studies, Spain experienced a 25% increase, Italy saw a 31% increase, and France witnessed a 19% increase in digital banking adoption during the pandemic¹³.

3. Mobile Banking and Contactless Payments: According to projections by Juniper Research, the number of contactless payment users is expected to surpass 2 billion by 2023⁴. According to projections by Statista, the number of mobile banking users worldwide is projected to reach 1.91 billion by the end of 2023.

Insights:
  • Customers increasingly seek personalized and convenient digital banking experiences.
  • AI adoption for banking services is promising, with significant potential for time-saving and improved customer service.
  • COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated digital banking adoption, making digital channels vital for banking institutions.
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Low-interest-rate environment

Persistently low interest rates pose profitability challenges for banks, highlighting the importance of regulatory compliance to instill trust in the banking sector's ability to navigate economic conditions.

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Low-interest-rate environment

1. Federal Reserve Interest Rates: As of September 2021, the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate was 0.00% to 0.25%. This represented historically low interest rates, which were kept in place since March 2020 as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

2. Net Interest Margin (NIM) Trends: During periods of low-interest rates, banks' net interest margins tend to compress. For example, in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, banks' NIMs experienced pressure due to the prolonged low-interest-rate environment.

3. Bank Profits: The low-interest-rate environment can impact banks' profitability, especially for those heavily reliant on net interest income. Lower interest rates can reduce the interest income earned on loans and investments, potentially affecting banks' bottom line.

4. Loan Demand: During times of low-interest rates, borrowing costs are reduced, which can stimulate demand for loans. Banks may experience increased loan volumes as businesses and consumers take advantage of cheaper borrowing opportunities.

5. Asset Quality and Risk: Low-interest rates may lead banks to search for higher yields, potentially increasing their exposure to riskier assets or borrowers with weaker credit profiles. This could result in asset quality risks, including potential loan defaults and credit losses.

6. Monetary Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve and other central banks typically use low-interest-rate policies as part of their monetary tools to support economic growth, especially during periods of economic weakness or recession.

Insights:
  • Historically low interest rates put pressure on banks' net interest margins and profitability, necessitating the exploration of alternative revenue sources to maintain financial health.
  • The low-interest-rate environment encourages borrowing and boosts loan demand, offering opportunities for banks to increase their lending volumes.
  • In pursuit of higher yields, banks might face asset quality risks and must be cautious in managing their loan portfolios to mitigate potential defaults and credit losses.
  • Central banks use low-interest-rate policies to stimulate economic growth during economic downturns or crises, aiming to encourage borrowing, spending, and investment.
  • Banks need to continuously monitor market conditions and adapt their strategies to effectively navigate the challenges posed by prolonged low-interest rates.
  • Lower interest rates benefit borrowers with reduced borrowing costs but may result in lower returns for savers on their deposits and investments.
  • Prolonged low-interest rates may have lasting effects, such as market distortions and potential impacts on income distribution and wealth inequality in the economy.
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Economic downturns, financial crises, and disintermediation

Banks face increased credit risk and potential loan defaults during economic downturns and financial crises, as well as the threat of disintermediation from non traditional financial service providers. Regulatory compliance and adaptation to technological disruptions are essential to foster trust in the stability and resilience of the banking system.

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Economic downturns, financial crises, and disintermediation

1. Global Growth Deceleration: The World Economic Forum predicts a marked slowdown in global growth from 5.5% to 4.1% in 2022 due to ongoing COVID-19 disruptions and supply bottlenecks.

2. Inflationary Pressures: The rebound in global activity, supply disruptions, and higher food and energy prices have led to increased headline inflation in many countries.

3. Uneven Economic Recovery: While advanced economies are projected to return to pre-pandemic trends in output and investment in 2022, emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) may lag due to lower vaccination rates, tighter fiscal and monetary policies, and lingering pandemic effects.

4. Downside Risks: Various risks, such as Omicron-driven disruptions, supply bottlenecks, inflation expectations de-anchoring, financial stress, climate-related disasters, and weakening long-term growth drivers, cloud the global economic outlook.

5. Fintech Industry's Resilience and Growth: Global fintech investment reached $105 billion in 2020, despite economic challenges, according to Accenture. (Source: Accenture, January 2021) The global alternative lending market, including P2P lending, was valued at over $187 billion in 2019 and expected to grow at a CAGR of over 24% from 2020 to 2027. (Source: Fortune Business Insights, August 2020) Fintech adoption rates were increasing worldwide, with countries like China, India, and Brazil showing high rates of fintech usage among their populations, according to Ernst & Young's FinTech Adoption Index, 2019.

Insights:
  • Challenges for Traditional Banking: Banks faced increased credit risk and profitability issues, prompting adjustments to manage loan defaults.
  • Fintech's Growing: Fintech companies have emerged as crucial players in providing accessible and user-friendly financial services during economic downturns, presenting opportunities for further market expansion.
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Trust and reputational risk

Banks operate in an environment where trust and confidence are paramount. Any reputational damage can significantly impact customer trust and loyalty, making trust and reputational risk important considerations for banks.

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Trust and reputational risk

1. Trust in the Financial Services Industry: The financial services industry faces a significant challenge with only 40% consumer trust, impacting customer loyalty and brand reputation.

2. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB): tracks and publishes complaints related to financial services. According to the CFPB’s annual report for 2020, the CFPB handled approximately 542,300 complaints last year—a nearly 54% increase over the approximately 352,400 complaints handled in 2019

3. Data Breaches: According to the Identity Theft Resource Center (ITRC), data breaches in the United States hit a record high. In 2017, with over 1,300 reported incidents, exposing billions of consumer records.

4. Regulatory Compliance Penalties: In 2020, several financial institutions were fined substantial amounts for various compliance violations. Wells Fargo was fined $3 billion by the U.S. Department of Justice for its fake account scandal. Between 2016 and 2021, global banks paid over $400 billion in fines related to regulatory compliance issues, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

Insights:
  • Listen to Customers: Addressing complaints and feedback promptly rebuilds trust and loyalty.
  • Trust Matters: This low level of trust can have significant implications for financial institutions, as it can impact customer loyalty, brand reputation, and overall business performance.
  • Secure Data: The financial sector has consistently been one of the most targeted industries for cyberattacks, as reported by various cybersecurity firms.
  • Comply Ethically: Adhering to regulations preserves credibility and trustworthiness.
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Compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) and anti-terrorism financing (ATF) regulations

Banks must adhere to strict AML and ATF regulations to prevent illicit financial activities, ensuring trust in the integrity of the financial system.

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Compliance with AML and ATF regulations:

1. Money Laundering Magnitude: The estimated EUR 715B to EUR 1.87T laundered annually highlights the immense problem, necessitating continuous efforts to combat financial crimes and prioritize AML measures for safeguarding the global economy.

2. Rising Enforcement Actions: 2022 saw AML-related scandals with a USD 22B cumulative penalty, signifying increased regulatory pursuit of non-compliant entities and the seriousness of AML violations.

3. Scrutiny on Financial Institutions: Major fines on Danske Bank, Credit Suisse, and Santander Bank UK show regulators holding accountable large institutions for compliance failures, compelling AML prioritization and robust compliance programs.

4. Persistent AML Challenges: Despite AML emphasis, financial institutions still face hurdles in achieving full compliance. Repeated failures, as with Santander Bank UK, stress the need for ongoing vigilance and AML improvement.

5. Cumulative Financial Impact: USD 46.4B in fines since 2008 reveals non-compliance's lasting financial consequences. Investing in effective AML measures becomes vital to avoid long-term repercussions.

6. Evolving Crypto Risks: Cryptocurrencies' rise introduces AML complexities, such as anonymity and cross-border transactions without intermediaries. Addressing crypto-related AML risks requires innovative and adaptive approaches.

Insights:
  • The scale of money laundering emphasizes the need for strong AML measures to protect the global economy. In 2022, there was a surge in AML-related scandals, resulting in record penalties and increased enforcement efforts.
  • Major financial institutions faced substantial fines, signaling heightened regulatory scrutiny and the importance of robust compliance programs. These persistent AML compliance challenges necessitate continuous vigilance.
  • The rise of cryptocurrencies introduces new AML complexities, requiring innovative approaches to address risks in the crypto space. Additionally, historical fines for AML breaches underscore the long-term financial consequences of non-compliance.
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Data privacy and protection

Banks must prioritize data privacy and protection, complying with regulatory requirements, to earn and maintain customer trust in safeguarding their sensitive information.

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Data privacy and protection

1. Identity Theft: The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reported that identity theft was the second most common type of consumer complaint in the United States in 2020, comprising 15.4% of all reported complaints. In 2019, the FTC reported that credit card fraud was the most common form of identity theft, accounting for 41% of all reported cases.

2. Financial Losses: A study conducted by IBM Security and the Ponemon Institute in 2020 found that the average cost of a data breach in the United States was $8.64 million. The same study also reported that the average cost per compromised record in a data breach was $242.

3. Financial Industry-Specific Data Breaches: In 2019, Capital One, a major U.S. bank, experienced a significant data breach that exposed the personal information of approximately 106 million individuals. The breach included names, addresses, credit scores, and other sensitive information. Capital One estimated that the breach would cost the company approximately $100 to $150 million in customer reimbursement and other related expenses.

4. Security and Investigation Costs: The IBM Security and Ponemon Institute study mentioned earlier found that companies in the United States spent an average of $3.86 million on incident response activities and $3.25 million on forensic investigations after experiencing a data breach.

5. Legal and Regulatory Penalties: The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) allows regulators to fine companies up to 4% of their global annual revenue or €20 million, whichever is higher, for severe violations of data protection requirements. In 2016, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) fined Morgan Stanley $1 million for failing to adopt written policies and procedures to protect customer data in violation of the Safeguards Rule.

Insights:
  • Data breaches lead to significant financial losses, Identity theft is a common issue, with credit card fraud being the most prevalent form.
  • Even major financial institutions face data breaches, exposing sensitive customer information and incurring expenses for customer reimbursement.
  • Financial institutions bear substantial costs for security and investigation efforts following data breaches.
  • Inadequate data protection can result in severe penalties, including hefty fines and regulatory actions.
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Legacy Systems and Technological Obsolescence

Banks need to update legacy systems to enhance efficiency, security, regulatory compliance, and build trust in their technological infrastructure.

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Legacy Systems and Technological Obsolescence

1. Complexity of Legacy Systems and Security: According to a 2018 Deloitte report, 47% of respondents from the financial services sector stated that the complexity of legacy systems makes them more challenging to secure.

2. Impact on Customer Experience: A study by Accenture in 2019 revealed that 81% of banking executives believed that their legacy systems hindered their ability to provide an improved customer experience.

3. Compliance and Regulatory Challenges: In a 2020 survey by Deloitte, 42% of banking and capital markets respondents listed legacy technology as a top challenge in implementing and maintaining compliance with regulations.

4. Limited Integration Capabilities: Legacy systems often lack the flexibility and integration capabilities needed to work seamlessly with newer technologies and platforms.

5. High Maintenance Costs: A study by Capgemini in 2018 found that financial institutions spent around 60-80% of their IT budget on maintaining legacy systems.

6. Difficulty in Attracting Tech Talent: Legacy technologies may not be attractive to younger tech-savvy professionals, potentially leading to challenges in recruiting and retaining skilled IT personnel.

7. Inefficiencies in Business Processes: Legacy systems can create inefficiencies in core banking processes, such as account management, loan processing, and compliance checks. Outdated systems may lead to manual workarounds and multiple data entries, increasing the risk of errors and delaying critical tasks.

Insights:
  • Legacy systems increase security risks due to their complexity and outdated features, making them vulnerable to cyberattacks.
  • Outdated legacy systems hinder banks' ability to provide a modern, user-friendly customer experience, impacting their competitiveness.
  • Compliance challenges arise as legacy systems struggle to adapt to evolving regulations, posing legal and reputational risks for financial institutions.
  • Limited integration capabilities of legacy systems lead to data silos and inefficiencies in sharing information across different platforms.
  • Financial institutions spend a substantial portion of their IT budgets on maintaining legacy systems, impacting resource allocation.
  • Legacy technologies may deter tech talent from joining financial institutions, leading to skill gaps and reduced innovation potential.
  • Inefficient core banking processes, caused by legacy systems, result in manual workarounds, errors, and slower operations.
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